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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:159
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13126.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Dayton (146.0)A10A78-77L0%0.0
11-15Oklahoma (49.0)B12A108-69L0%0.0
11-17Stony Brook (208.0)AEH87-76W100%0.0
11-19Oregon (72.0)P12A95-71L0%0.0
11-22Bucknell (80.0)PatA87-83L0%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (184.0)MVCA85-93W100%0.0
12-2IUPUI (294.0)HorzH83-64W100%0.0
12-5Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA77-80W100%0.0
12-9Valparaiso (188.0)MVCH71-70W100%0.0
12-19North Florida (218.0)ASunH79-65W100%0.0
12-22Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH70-54W100%0.0
12-29Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH75-54W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH72-62W100%0.0
1-6Buffalo (25.0)MACH63-83L0%0.0
1-9Ohio (204.0)MACA68-75W100%0.0
1-13Western Michigan (177.0)MACA73-58L0%0.0
1-16Central Michigan (167.0)MACH82-76W100%0.0
1-20Miami OH (159.0)MACA71-53L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (154.0)MACA88-80L0%0.0
1-27Akron (227.0)MACH111-106W100%0.0
1-30Toledo (75.0)MACA63-75W100%0.0
2-3Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA58-41L0%0.0
2-6Bowling Green (193.0)MACH59-56W100%0.0
2-9Kent St. (154.0)MACH87-68W100%0.0
2-13Akron (227.0)MACA77-90W100%0.0
2-17Toledo (75.0)MACH99-71W100%0.0
2-20Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH77-68W100%0.0
2-23Western Michigan (177.0)MACH80-87L0%0.0
2-27Central Michigan (167.0)MACA75-51L0%0.0
3-2Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA66-65L0%0.0
3-8Kent St. (154.0)MACN73-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.2726.2760.1660.165.345.34
Kent St.MAC5.585.5846.6746.67-0.37-0.37
ToledoMAC4.104.1070.9770.971.721.72
Central MichiganMAC4.064.0653.5753.570.290.29
Eastern MichiganMAC4.064.0659.2659.260.750.75
AkronMAC4.034.0344.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Northern IllinoisMAC4.004.0035.7135.71-1.14-1.14
Western MichiganMAC3.983.9846.4346.43-0.28-0.28
BuffaloMAC2.572.5775.0075.001.291.29
Miami OHMAC2.472.4743.3343.33-0.33-0.33
OhioMAC2.472.4744.8344.83-0.26-0.26
Bowling GreenMAC2.452.4548.2848.28-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoMVC1.741.7444.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Indiana St.MVC1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
North FloridaASun1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
DaytonA101.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Florida A&MMEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
BucknellPat1.641.6472.7372.730.740.74
OregonP121.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
OklahomaB121.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
Stony BrookAE1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
IUPUIHorz1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Notre DameACC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
OaklandHorz0.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2932.3532.35-0.10-0.10
Wright St.Horz0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Green BayHorz0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1884.3884.380.130.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1812.5012.50-0.13-0.13
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
SyracuseACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
AlbanyAE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Oregon St.P120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Washington St.P120.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.089.689.68-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00